Challenges in implementing GP clusters in Scotland: a qualitative study comparing the views of senior primary care stakeholders in 2016 with those in 2021.

BACKGROUND: Formation of GP clusters began in Scotland in April 2016 as part of a new Scottish GP contract. They aim to improve the care quality for local populations (intrinsic role) and the integration of health and social care (extrinsic role). AIM: To compare predicted challenges of cluster implementation in 2016 with reported challenges in 2021. DESIGN & SETTING: Qualitative study of senior national stakeholders in primary care in Scotland. METHOD: Qualitative analysis of semi-structured interviews with 12 senior primary care national stakeholders in 2016 (n = 6) and 2021 (n = 6). RESULTS: Predicted challenges in 2016 included balancing intrinsic and extrinsic roles, providing sufficient support, maintaining motivation and direction, and avoiding variation between clusters. Progress of clusters in 2021 was perceived as suboptimal and was reported to vary significantly across the country, reflecting differences in local infrastructure. Practical facilitation (data, administrative support, training, project improvement support, and funded time) and strategic guidance from the Scottish Government was felt to be lacking. GP engagement with clusters was felt to be hindered by the significant time and workforce pressures facing primary care. These barriers were considered as collectively contributing to cluster lead 'burnout' and loss of momentum, exacerbated by inadequate opportunities for shared learning between clusters across Scotland. Such barriers preceded, but were perpetuated by, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSION: Apart from the COVID-19 pandemic, many of the challenges reported by stakeholders in 2021 were predicted in 2016. Accelerating progress in cluster working will require renewed investment and support applied consistently across the country.

Determinants of post-COVID-19 symptoms among adults aged 55 or above with chronic conditions in primary care: data from a prospective cohort in Hong Kong.

Background: Primary care patients, especially those with an older age, are one of the most vulnerable populations for post-COVID-19 symptoms. Identifying predictors of post-COVID symptoms can help identify high-risk individuals for preventive care. Methods: Out of 977 primary care patients aged 55 years or above with comorbid physical and psychosocial conditions in a prospective cohort in Hong Kong, 207 patients infected in the previous 5-24 weeks were included. The three most common post-COVID-19 symptoms (breathlessness, fatigue, cognitive difficulty), which lasted beyond the 4-week acute infection period, were assessed using items from the COVID-19 Yorkshire Rehabilitation Scale (C19-YRS), together with other self-reported symptoms. Multivariable analyses were conducted to identify predictors of post-acute and long COVID-19 symptoms (5-24 weeks after infection). Results: The 207 participants had a mean age of 70.8 ± 5.7 years, 76.3% were female, and 78.7% had ≥2 chronic conditions. In total, 81.2% reported at least one post-COVID symptom (mean: 1.9 ± 1.3); 60.9, 56.5 and 30.0% reported fatigue, cognitive difficulty, and breathlessness respectively; 46.1% reported at least one other new symptom (such as other respiratory-related symptoms (14.0%), insomnia or poor sleep quality (14.0%), and ear/nose/throat symptoms (e.g., sore throat) (10.1%), etc.). Depression predicted post-COVID-19 fatigue. The female sex predicted cognitive difficulty. Receiving fewer vaccine doses (2 doses vs. 3 doses) was associated with breathlessness. Anxiety predicted a higher overall symptom severity level of the three common symptoms. Conclusion: Depression, the female sex, and fewer vaccine doses predicted post-COVID symptoms. Promoting vaccination and providing intervention to those at high-risk for post-COVID symptoms are warranted.

A MODEL OF REMOTE TEACHING AND LEARNING UNDER EMERGENCY AND SUSTAINED CRISIS CONDITIONS: A DESCRIPTION OF NOVEL DISTANCE EDUCATION CONTEXTS AND MANIFESTATIONS

Humans have been learning at a distance for millennia. Modern information and communications technology has enabled formal distance education to be conducted online, though significant variation exists in purpose, course format, delivery methods, etc. Under duress of COVID-19, educators and students alike have been forced to engage in their courses remotely. These courses, however, are not equivalent to formal distance education and to date have broadly been referred to as Emergency Remote Teaching (ERT). Nevertheless, ERT courses are no longer unexpected and have become plannable;many are being sustained indefinitely due to the prolonged nature of the pandemic. Despite this paradox, current ERT literature typically conceptualizes the ongoing practice monolithically. This conceptual paper discusses key differences between formal distance education, emergency remote teaching, and the evolving practice of Sustained Remote Teaching (SRT). We suggest a descriptive contextual model as a research analytic for discussion in the field of distance education. © 2023,Turkish Online Journal of Distance Education. All Rights Reserved.

The need for systematic quality controls in implementing N95 reprocessing and sterilization.

BACKGROUND: Due to increased requirement for personal protective equipment during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, many medical centres utilized sterilization systems approved under Food and Drug Administration Emergency Use Authorization for single-use N95 mask re-use. However, few studies have examined the real-world clinical challenges and the role of ongoing quality control measures in successful implementation. AIMS: To demonstrate successful implementation of quality control measures in mask reprocessing, and the importance of continued quality assurance. METHODS: A prospective quality improvement study was conducted at a tertiary care medical centre. In total, 982 3M 1860 masks and Kimberly-Clark Tecnol PFR95 masks worn by healthcare workers underwent sterilization using a vaporized hydrogen peroxide gas plasma-based reprocessing system. Post-processing qualitative fit testing (QFT) was performed on 265 masks. Mannequin testing at the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) laboratory was used to evaluate the impact of repeated sterilization on mask filtration efficacy and fit. A locally designed platform evaluated the filtration efficiency of clinically used and reprocessed masks. FINDINGS: In total, 255 N95 masks underwent QFT. Of these, 240 masks underwent post-processing analysis: 205 were 3M 1860 masks and 35 were PFR95 masks. Twenty-five (12.2%) of the 3M masks and 10 (28.5%) of the PFR95 masks failed post-processing QFT. Characteristics of the failed masks included mask deformation (N=3, all 3M masks), soiled masks (N=3), weakened elastic bands (N=5, three PFR95 masks), and concern about mask shrinkage (N=3, two 3M masks). NIOSH testing demonstrated that while filter efficiency remained >98% after two cycles, mask strap elasticity decreased by 5.6% after reprocessing. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated successful quality control implementation for N95 mask disinfection, and highlights the importance of real-world clinical testing beyond laboratory conditions.

GP-led adapted comprehensive geriatric assessment for frail older people: a multi-methods evaluation of the 'Living Well Assessment' quality improvement project in Scotland.

BACKGROUND: Evidence to support comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) in primary care for frail older people is limited. AIM: To evaluate a GP-led adapted CGA quality improvement project. DESIGN & SETTING: Multi-methods evaluation in a large practice in Midlothian in Scotland. METHOD: The intervention was conducted by 10 GPs in a practice of approximately 11 000 patients, initially in the patient's home, and then remotely (by telephone or video consultation) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Evaluation included a patient questionnaire, and qualitative interviews with GPs delivering the Living Well Assessment (LWA), analysed by thematic analysis. RESULTS: A total of 165/220 (75%) patients responded to the survey, of which 86% reported a 'very good experience' of the LWA. The method of delivery did not significantly influence this although most (58%) stated a preference for face-to-face consultation. For the 31% who preferred remote LWA, most (23%) preferred telephone to video consultation (8%). Problems in remote consultations related to technical issues (video), poor vision (video), or deafness (telephone or video). GPs felt that home-based LWAs had real benefits but switching to remote during the pandemic had proven feasible. Concerns included potential increase in GP workload owing to the LWA and whether it was an efficient use of GPs' time. CONCLUSION: GP-led adapted CGA was feasible in a large practice, even during the pandemic, and highly valued by frail patients. Questions regarding efficient use of GPs' time, effectiveness in terms of important patient outcomes and impact, and cost-effectiveness, requires further investigation in a larger study.

From Emergency Remote Teaching (ERT) to Sustained Remote Teaching (SRT): A Comparative Semester Analysis of Exchange Students' Experiences and Perceptions of Learning Online During COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic caused universities worldwide to close campuses, forcing millions of teachers and students to resort to Emergency Remote Teaching (ERT) and learning. Though necessary, the sudden move to remote delivery marked a significant departure from the standards and norms in distance education. In Korea, the pandemic coincided with the start of the 2020 academic year. Though ERT was new and unplanned during the first semester of the year, it became Sustained Remote Teaching (SRT) in the second. Through the lens of performance improvement theory, we sought to determine if students' experiences and perceptions with learning remotely via SRT would change over time as a result of institutional preparedness and faculty support/experience. In total, 140 (Spring) and 93 (Fall) exchange students rated their perceptions of Teaching and Learning Processes, Student Support, and Course Structure with their ERT/SRT learning experiences via an electronic survey. An independent-samples one-way ANOVA indicated several statistically significant benchmarks, though results are interpreted as minor real world improvement. Implications for ERT/SRT policy and future research in the context of specific student groups are discussed.

Survey to identify research priorities for primary care in Scotland during and following the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: To identify research priorities for primary care in Scotland following the COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN: Modified James Lind Alliance methodology; respondents completed an online survey to make research suggestions and rank research themes in order of priority. SETTING: Scotland primary care. PARTICIPANTS: Healthcare professionals in primary care in Scotland and members of primary care patient and public involvement groups. 512 respondents provided research suggestions; 8% (n=40) did not work in health or social care; of those who did work, 68.8% worked in primary care, 16.3% community care, 11.7% secondary care, 4.5% third sector, 4.2% university (respondents could select multiple options). Of those respondents who identified as healthcare professionals, 33% were in nursing and midwifery professions, 25% were in allied health professions (of whom 45% were occupational therapists and 35% were physiotherapists), 20% were in the medical profession and 10% were in the pharmacy profession. MAIN OUTCOMES: Suggestions for research for primary care made by respondents were categorised into themes and subthemes by researchers and ranked in order of priority by respondents. RESULTS: There were 1274 research suggestions which were categorised under 12 themes and 30 subthemes. The following five themes received the most suggestions for research: disease and illness (n=461 suggestions), access (n=202), workforce (n=164), multidisciplinary team (MDT; n=143) and integration (n=108). One hundred and three (20%) respondents to the survey participated in ranking the list of 12 themes in order of research priority. The five most highly ranked research priorities were disease and illness, health inequalities, access, workforce and MDTs. The disease and illness theme had the greatest number of suggestions for research and was scored the most highly in the ranking exercise. The subtheme ranked as the most important research priority in the disease and illness theme was 'mental health'. CONCLUSIONS: The themes and subthemes identified in this study should inform research funders so that the direction of primary healthcare is informed by evidence.

Assessing the Implementation and Effectiveness of the Electronic Patient-Reported Outcome Tool for Older Adults With Complex Care Needs: Mixed Methods Study.

BACKGROUND: Goal-oriented care is being adopted to deliver person-centered primary care to older adults with multimorbidity and complex care needs. Although this model holds promise, its implementation remains a challenge. Digital health solutions may enable processes to improve adoption; however, they require evaluation to determine feasibility and impact. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to evaluate the implementation and effectiveness of the electronic Patient-Reported Outcome (ePRO) mobile app and portal system, designed to enable goal-oriented care delivery in interprofessional primary care practices. The research questions driving this study are as follows: Does ePRO improve quality of life and self-management in older adults with complex needs? What mechanisms are likely driving observed outcomes? METHODS: A multimethod, pragmatic randomized controlled trial using a stepped-wedge design and ethnographic case studies was conducted over a 15-month period in 6 comprehensive primary care practices across Ontario with a target enrollment of 176 patients. The 6 practices were randomized into either early (3-month control period; 12-month intervention) or late (6-month control period; 9-month intervention) groups. The primary outcome measure of interest was the Assessment of Quality of Life-4D (AQoL-4D). Data were collected at baseline and at 3 monthly intervals for the duration of the trial. Ethnographic data included observations and interviews with patients and providers at the midpoint and end of the intervention. Outcome data were analyzed using linear models conducted at the individual level, accounting for cluster effects at the practice level, and ethnographic data were analyzed using qualitative description and framework analysis methods. RESULTS: Recruitment challenges resulted in fewer sites and participants than expected; of the 176 target, only 142 (80.6%) patients were identified as eligible to participate because of lower-than-expected provider participation and fewer-than-expected patients willing to participate or perceived as ready to engage in goal-setting. Of the 142 patients approached, 45 (32%) participated. Patients set a variety of goals related to self-management, mental health, social health, and overall well-being. Owing to underpowering, the impact of ePRO on quality of life could not be definitively assessed; however, the intervention group, ePRO plus usual care (mean 15.28, SD 18.60) demonstrated a nonsignificant decrease in quality of life (t24=-1.20; P=.24) when compared with usual care only (mean 21.76, SD 2.17). The ethnographic data reveal a complex implementation process in which the meaningfulness (or coherence) of the technology to individuals' lives and work acted as a key driver of adoption and tool appraisal. CONCLUSIONS: This trial experienced many unexpected and significant implementation challenges related to recruitment and engagement. Future studies could be improved through better alignment of the research methods and intervention to the complex and diverse clinical settings, dynamic goal-oriented care process, and readiness of provider and patient participants. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02917954; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02917954.

A global crash-course in teaching and learning online: A thematic review of empirical Emergency Remote Teaching (ERT) studies in higher education during Year 1 of COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted education in ways that academic institutions, scholars, administrators, educators, and students will strive to fully comprehend for years to come. The global spread of SARSCoV2 in early 2020 prompted social distancing as the primary countermeasure against contracting and spreading the novel coronavirus, which in turn led academic communities worldwide to suddenly transition to emergency remote teaching (ERT) in order to maintain educational continuity. This review of the literature synthesizes findings from 38 empirical studies set in higher education about ERT in 2020 from all over the world. A thematic analysis of findings produced four major themes: 1) diverse ERT experiences;2) digital divide and vast educational/socio economic inequalities;3) commonly-experienced ERT problems, issues, and challenges;and 4) frequently-made adjustments in response to ERT. Findings are indicative of the immediate aftermath of transitions to ERT, and open areas of research for long-term impacts of ERT are discussed.

The effect of respiratory activity, non-invasive respiratory support and facemasks on aerosol generation and its relevance to COVID-19.

Respirable aerosols (< 5 µm in diameter) present a high risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Guidelines recommend using aerosol precautions during aerosol-generating procedures, and droplet (> 5 µm) precautions at other times. However, emerging evidence indicates respiratory activities may be a more important source of aerosols than clinical procedures such as tracheal intubation. We aimed to measure the size, total number and volume of all human aerosols exhaled during respiratory activities and therapies. We used a novel chamber with an optical particle counter sampling at 100 l.min-1 to count and size-fractionate close to all exhaled particles (0.5-25 µm). We compared emissions from ten healthy subjects during six respiratory activities (quiet breathing; talking; shouting; forced expiratory manoeuvres; exercise; and coughing) with three respiratory therapies (high-flow nasal oxygen and single or dual circuit non-invasive positive pressure ventilation). Activities were repeated while wearing facemasks. When compared with quiet breathing, exertional respiratory activities increased particle counts 34.6-fold during talking and 370.8-fold during coughing (p < 0.001). High-flow nasal oxygen 60 at l.min-1 increased particle counts 2.3-fold (p = 0.031) during quiet breathing. Single and dual circuit non-invasive respiratory therapy at 25/10 cm.H2 O with quiet breathing increased counts by 2.6-fold and 7.8-fold, respectively (both p < 0.001). During exertional activities, respiratory therapies and facemasks reduced emissions compared with activities alone. Respiratory activities (including exertional breathing and coughing) which mimic respiratory patterns during illness generate substantially more aerosols than non-invasive respiratory therapies, which conversely can reduce total emissions. We argue the risk of aerosol exposure is underappreciated and warrants widespread, targeted interventions.

Impact of COVID-19 on loneliness, mental health, and health service utilisation: a prospective cohort study of older adults with multimorbidity in primary care.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the psychological health and health service utilisation of older adults with multimorbidity, who are particularly vulnerable. AIM: To describe changes in loneliness, mental health problems, and attendance to scheduled medical care before and after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN AND SETTING: Telephone survey on a pre-existing cohort of older adults with multimorbidity in primary care. METHOD: Mental health and health service utilisation outcomes were compared with the outcomes before the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hong Kong using paired t-tests, Wilcoxon's signed-rank test, and McNemar's test. Loneliness was measured by the De Jong Gierveld Loneliness Scale. The secondary outcomes (anxiety, depression, and insomnia) were measured by the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire, the 7-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder tool, and the Insomnia Severity Index. Appointments attendance data were extracted from a computerised medical record system. Sociodemographic factors associated with outcome changes were examined by linear regression and generalised estimating equations. RESULTS: Data were collected from 583 older (≥60 years) adults. There were significant increases in loneliness, anxiety, and insomnia, after the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak. Missed medical appointments over a 3-month period increased from 16.5% 1 year ago to 22.0% after the onset of the outbreak. In adjusted analysis, being female, living alone, and having >4 chronic conditions were independently associated with increased loneliness. Females were more likely to have increased anxiety and insomnia. CONCLUSION: Psychosocial health of older patients with multimorbidity markedly deteriorated and missed medical appointments substantially increased after the COVID-19 outbreak.

Global, regional, and national estimates of the population at increased risk of severe COVID-19 due to underlying health conditions in 2020: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The risk of severe COVID-19 if an individual becomes infected is known to be higher in older individuals and those with underlying health conditions. Understanding the number of individuals at increased risk of severe COVID-19 and how this varies between countries should inform the design of possible strategies to shield or vaccinate those at highest risk. METHODS: We estimated the number of individuals at increased risk of severe disease (defined as those with at least one condition listed as "at increased risk of severe COVID-19" in current guidelines) by age (5-year age groups), sex, and country for 188 countries using prevalence data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 and UN population estimates for 2020. The list of underlying conditions relevant to COVID-19 was determined by mapping the conditions listed in GBD 2017 to those listed in guidelines published by WHO and public health agencies in the UK and the USA. We analysed data from two large multimorbidity studies to determine appropriate adjustment factors for clustering and multimorbidity. To help interpretation of the degree of risk among those at increased risk, we also estimated the number of individuals at high risk (defined as those that would require hospital admission if infected) using age-specific infection-hospitalisation ratios for COVID-19 estimated for mainland China and making adjustments to reflect country-specific differences in the prevalence of underlying conditions and frailty. We assumed males were twice at likely as females to be at high risk. We also calculated the number of individuals without an underlying condition that could be considered at increased risk because of their age, using minimum ages from 50 to 70 years. We generated uncertainty intervals (UIs) for our estimates by running low and high scenarios using the lower and upper 95% confidence limits for country population size, disease prevalences, multimorbidity fractions, and infection-hospitalisation ratios, and plausible low and high estimates for the degree of clustering, informed by multimorbidity studies. FINDINGS: We estimated that 1·7 billion (UI 1·0-2·4) people, comprising 22% (UI 15-28) of the global population, have at least one underlying condition that puts them at increased risk of severe COVID-19 if infected (ranging from <5% of those younger than 20 years to >66% of those aged 70 years or older). We estimated that 349 million (186-787) people (4% [3-9] of the global population) are at high risk of severe COVID-19 and would require hospital admission if infected (ranging from <1% of those younger than 20 years to approximately 20% of those aged 70 years or older). We estimated 6% (3-12) of males to be at high risk compared with 3% (2-7) of females. The share of the population at increased risk was highest in countries with older populations, African countries with high HIV/AIDS prevalence, and small island nations with high diabetes prevalence. Estimates of the number of individuals at increased risk were most sensitive to the prevalence of chronic kidney disease, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and chronic respiratory disease. INTERPRETATION: About one in five individuals worldwide could be at increased risk of severe COVID-19, should they become infected, due to underlying health conditions, but this risk varies considerably by age. Our estimates are uncertain, and focus on underlying conditions rather than other risk factors such as ethnicity, socioeconomic deprivation, and obesity, but provide a starting point for considering the number of individuals that might need to be shielded or vaccinated as the global pandemic unfolds. FUNDING: UK Department for International Development, Wellcome Trust, Health Data Research UK, Medical Research Council, and National Institute for Health Research.

An Extended Laboratory Validation Study and Comparative Performance Evaluation of the Abbott ID NOW COVID-19 Assay in a Coastal California Tertiary Care Medical Center (preprint)

Abstract: The Abbott ID NOW COVID-19 assay is a rapid molecular diagnostic test particularly designed for on-site, rapid turnaround point of care (POC) testing. The utilization of rapid diagnostic tests is integral to optimizing workflow within the hospital and/or procedural-based clinics. The capability to provide both rapid disposition and correct patient classification during this COVID-19 pandemic is critically important with broad infection control implications for both patients and healthcare staff. A tightly controlled, extended laboratory validation was performed at our medical center to determine the negative test agreement of the Abbott ID NOW compared with the BD MAX analyzer, a laboratory-based, two target, molecular analyzer with a sensitive cycle threshold (Ct) positive cutoff value of 42. There was strict adoption of the procedures listed in the Abbott ID NOW Instruction for Use (IFU)1 insert delineating preferred practices for optimal test performance. Under these conditions, our institution demonstrated a significant negative percent agreement with 116 out of 117 patients correlating, which equates to a 99.1% concordance similar to a recently reported correlation study2.

Adaptive County Level COVID-19 Forecast Models: Analysis and Improvement (preprint)

Accurately forecasting county level COVID-19 confirmed cases is crucial to optimizing medical resources. Forecasting emerging outbreaks pose a particular challenge because many existing forecasting techniques learn from historical seasons trends. Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) with LSTM-based cells are a logical choice of model due to their ability to learn temporal dynamics. In this paper, we adapt the state and county level influenza model, TDEFSI-LONLY, proposed in Wang et a. [l2020] to national and county level COVID-19 data. We show that this model poorly forecasts the current pandemic. We analyze the two week ahead forecasting capabilities of the TDEFSI-LONLY model with combinations of regularization techniques. Effective training of the TDEFSI-LONLY model requires data augmentation, to overcome this challenge we utilize an SEIR model and present an inter-county mixing extension to this model to simulate sufficient training data. Further, we propose an alternate forecast model, {\it County Level Epidemiological Inference Recurrent Network} (\alg{}) that trains an LSTM backbone on national confirmed cases to learn a low dimensional time pattern and utilizes a time distributed dense layer to learn individual county confirmed case changes each day for a two weeks forecast. We show that the best, worst, and median state forecasts made using CLEIR-Net model are respectively New York, South Carolina, and Montana.

How many are at increased risk of severe COVID-19 disease? Rapid global, regional and national estimates for 2020 (preprint)

Background The risk of severe COVID-19 disease is known to be higher in older individuals and those with underlying health conditions. Understanding the number of individuals at increased risk of severe COVID-19 illness, and how this varies between countries may inform the design of possible strategies to shield those at highest risk. Methods We estimated the number of individuals at increased risk of severe COVID-19 disease by age (5-year age groups), sex and country (n=188) based on prevalence data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study for 2017 and United Nations population estimates for 2020. We also calculated the number of individuals without an underlying condition that could be considered at-risk because of their age, using thresholds from 50-70 years. The list of underlying conditions relevant to COVID-19 disease was determined by mapping conditions listed in GBD to the guidelines published by WHO and public health agencies in the UK and US. We analysed data from two large multimorbidity studies to determine appropriate adjustment factors for clustering and multimorbidity. Results We estimate that 1.7 (1.0 - 2.4) billion individuals (22% [15-28%] of the global population) are at increased risk of severe COVID-19 disease. The share of the population at increased risk ranges from 16% in Africa to 31% in Europe. Chronic kidney disease (CKD), cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes and chronic respiratory disease (CRD) were the most prevalent conditions in males and females aged 50+ years. African countries with a high prevalence of HIV/AIDS and Island countries with a high prevalence of diabetes, also had a high share of the population at increased risk. The prevalence of multimorbidity (>1 underlying conditions) was three times higher in Europe than in Africa (10% vs 3%). Conclusion Based on current guidelines and prevalence data from GBD, we estimate that one in five individuals worldwide has a condition that is on the list of those at increased risk of severe COVID-19 disease. However, for many of these individuals the underlying condition will be undiagnosed or not severe enough to be captured in health systems, and in some cases the increase in risk may be quite modest. There is an urgent need for robust analyses of the risks associated with different underlying conditions so that countries can identify the highest risk groups and develop targeted shielding policies to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.